If you really want to increase your success at sports betting, then you need to be prepared to learn something about statistics, and even worse, Bayesian statistics, but don’t worry too much as it is not quite as bad as it sounds. Here we will look at how it applies to spread betting.
The objective of spread betting is to predict as closely as possible what the final spread will be. Of course you will never know for sure, but if the game was played over again many thousands of times, then you would be able to assign a probability distribution to the spread with a mean say of -4 and a standard deviation of 7. If the bookmaker’s spread was -2, then using the binomial distribution you could calculate the area under the curve and end up with a result of around 70%, which means that you would beat the spread 7 times out of 10. The problem of course is that you would never have that data to make the prediction.
The advantage of Bayesian statistics is that you can make predictions with very little data. You start off by making your best guess, which is called the prior probability, and then you improve on it by incorporating new data. For instance if it is football, then the new data could be that one team has a substitute goalkeeper. You consider what effect the substitute new keeper will have on the match and assign a probability too it.
You then calculate the posterior proximity using this information. By considering all of the relevant factors, such as the impact of weather conditions, you can keep improving your prediction. The calculations involved can get very complicated, but there are computer programmes and online calculators that will do all the hard work for you.
Bayesian statistics are relevant to other forms of gambling as well as sports betting. For instance they can be applied to several online casino games. They do not apply to games such as roulette that are governed entirely by chance, but they can be used in games such as poker and blackjack. If fact most expert poker players carry out Bayesian type calculations instinctively, they don’t even realise that they are doing so. The choice of the site is also very important, many players often start on the first result on their search engine and end up on a dodgy casino site.
Many sites nowadays offer free reviews of casinos by category, by game or devices such as tables or smartphones. For example, you can find out witch are the best casino games for your Ipad by visiting best iPad casinos at iPadcasino.com.au (or on another online casino site). Then you will know which site to select for your device and enjoy the best graphics for your game of poker or blackjack (hoping it won’t distract you while you try to use Bayesian statistics).